Dr. Ashok Desai is an eminent economist, scholar, author and journalist. A PhD from University of Cambridge, he was the Chief Economic Advisor to the MInistry of Finance (1991- 93). He played a key role in designing and implementing a radical reform of economic governance, dismantling controls and restrictions that were 50 years old and had outlived their usefulness.
Praveen Gupta: If you were to revisit the Indian reforms agenda of 1991 – what is it that you would wish to do differently?
Ashok Desai: Nothing. India was in a dire economic crisis, what we had to do would have been clear to any economist, the crisis started some years before we came to power, the government had been running to Washington and borrowing from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB), they set conditions for lending which the government did not fulfil – either because it did not have sufficient political support or because it had ideological objections – and what needed to be done was clear to any rational economist.
“When I entered the office of Chief Economic Advisor, the file on the top was the IMF file. IMF said very succinctly what needed to be done, I wrote that I agreed, and sent the file to the minister“
When I entered the office of Chief Economic Advisor, the file on the top was the IMF file. IMF said very succinctly what needed to be done, I wrote that I agreed, and sent the file to the minister. Later, I published my analysis of the crisis in my first Economic Survey 1991-92; you will find what I thought in the two volumes. The first volume A is fundamental and brief.
PG: The resultant trajectory was at the cost of environmental sustainability. Would you agree?
AD: No. If anyone says what you have and gives a rationale for it; I will refute it. India is the world’s leading superpower in solar power. It could improve its policy on global warming, but whatever it may do or not do will have only a minor impact on global warming. The biggest contributors to global warming over the past 150 years are the industrial countries.
“The answer is complicated, scores of scholarly books and hundreds of articles have been written about it… I will give a brief answer”
PG: What came in the way of India catching up with China?
AD: You presumably mean growth. The answer is complicated, scores of scholarly books and hundreds of articles have been written about it, and I can’t summarize them here. I will give a brief answer. China has done better for four reasons: First, it is a dictatorship: it does not have divisive democratic decision-makers. Second, it used its dictatorial state to save and invest twice India’s savings/GDP and investment/GDP ratio. Third, it did not follow international conventions; it copied and stole technology from all over the world. Finally, although it is a dictatorship, it does not control government authorities lower down. So they had to work out their own ways to grow. There was enormous innovation both in technology and governance at lower levels.
PG: What were the key findings from your thesis on post-war Germany? Can India leverage some of the learnings?
AD: My thesis was not on post-war Germany. It was about investment and income distribution in Germany before World War I. Here it is.
India can learn nothing from Germany before the First World War.
PG: Just like the Japanese economy, Germany too appears to be struggling with its legendary momentum. Does that concern you and if so why?
AD: Both are extremely rich; their people are living well, and will continue to do so even if they don’t do too well. Their problems are very different. Germany is trying to improve the performance of the European Union and manage its relations with Trumpian America; Japan has close economic relations with China and strategic relations with the US and is trying to balance China and USA.
PG: Grateful thanks for these excellent insights, Dr. Desai.
Time to revisit vestiges of the yore. Notwithstanding the opening up of the insurance market, knock-for-knock agreement remains embedded in the system. Dismantling it should clear the path to segment the market. It is not only about profitability of insurers, fair pricing for insureds but also disciplining how we drive on our roads.
As scientific evidence mounts – the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (#AMOC) could be on course for collapse. Iceland’s government has made the unusual move of designating the risk a national security threat, prompting a high-level response into how to prepare for this “existential threat.”
Now is our opportunity “to make the #tippingpoints move.. from breakdown to breakthrough”. Given its far-reaching planetary consequences – the #AMOC presents that very opportunity.
If you are seeking to understand “How soon might the Atlantic Ocean break?” Please do read Sandra Upson‘s insightful piece (link in the comments).
🌀 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐌𝐎𝐂? – Praveen Gupta maps out the reality of our planetary crises, and asks if we’re truly choosing to look the other way: https://lnkd.in/e2tecF2M:
Polar bears: ”Fat white hairy canaries in the coalmine”
Spotting polar bears in an ice free terrain is the last thing one would expect, as I did: https://lnkd.in/dBsYr_Uy.
Churchill (Manitoba, Canada) a small remote town in Western Hudson Bay area is the ‘polar bear capital of the world’. When sea ice melts in summer – some 600 plus of them move on land awaiting return of ice. As the ocean warms, the return period of ice is getting longer. Much of such time the bears generally fast and can lose a kilo of weight each day.
The fat white furry things are ‘lipovores’. Lack of their favourite seal meat over an extended period results in a lower ‘replacement rate’ for an already shrinking population. Scientists are also concerned about growing shipping activity as the arctic is becoming ice free.
Polar bears are canaries in the coal mine. However eco-tourism entrepreneur Wally Daudrich, a longtime Churchill resident tells me – he remains hopeful.
Our oceans are the most critical climate regulator. Humanity cannot survive without a healthy marine ecosystem,” says marine biologist Dr Howard Dryden. “We could survive climate change; we will not survive the loss of marine life and the ocean drifters that life on Earth depends on,” he warns.
Wally Daudrichis a Churchill based eco-tourism entrepreneur. He runs Lazy Bear Expeditions and captains Matonabee. Located in the far-flung northern end of central Canada – by the Hudson Bay – Churchill is a small town (population of approximately 800) in province of Manitoba. Best known as the polar bear capital of the world.
Praveen Gupta: How did Churchill evolve from a military base to an eco-tourism destination? Please describe your early venture in eco-tourism.
Wally Daudrich: The military represented a boom for an otherwise small coastal village. The boom ended when political and scientific conditions changed and there was no longer a need for an early dispatch airport for countermeasures to Soviet threats. Those threats dissipated with the development of satellite warning systems.
Ecotourism in the world didn’t start to fully develop until a consciousness of our environment that we live in needs to be balanced with sustainable economic development.
Churchill was a fur trading village for centuries. It was unique in many ways as it developed a trading system that benefitted both Indigenous people and Europeans of that day.
“During the military days there was very little activity of bears coming into populated areas… When the military left the bears moved in.
At first the polar bear was viewed as a nuisance. During the military days there was very little activity of bears coming into populated areas. By virtue of the amount of activity, the Polar Bears generally stayed away. When the military left the bears moved in.
As this made news of actual polar bears walking through Churchill it generated millions of dollars of free publicity before the internet and social media became the main comms method. Local businesses grew around the demand for local polar bear tours near Churchill.
When the sea-ice melts, polar bears wander in and around Churchill!(Picture by Amiya Gupta).
PG: The Churchill ecosystem is at the intersection of three biomes and show-cases large polar bear and beluga whale populations. What are the unique circumstances that arise at this intersection?
WD: There are several natural forces that create the apex mammal life in Churchill.
First, the proximity of Churchill near four river systems helps to create a brackish water environment. This attracts fish and spawning concentrations in the area. And of course the concentration of fish brings the high fat concentrated mammals of seals and whales. And as a result the apex predator is here in higher than normal numbers.
“The concentration of fish brings the high fat concentrated mammals of seals and whales. And as a result the apex predator is here in higher than normal numbers.
Also, geographically we have a large peninsula called Cape Churchill. This peninsula in conjunction with the ice spewed out by all the river systems helps to cause the area to freeze up to 2 months sooner than other parts of Hudson Bay.
Polar bear holding place! (Picture by Praveen Gupta).
The proximity of the Boreal Forest and the Tundra biomes are largely irrelevant to the success of the polar bears in this area. But they are interesting in how the species interact from the different biomes.
PG: You have been observing the Churchill environment for 45 years, how has it changed with global warming and how will it continue to change?
WD: I believe that in general the climate is warming. But I believe it has been warming as a general trend for thousands of years. Polar Bears will not start to die like we sometimes see illustrated by organizations looking for donations. They slow down reproduction.
I have seen our local population fluctuate over the almost 5 decades as we see volcanoes, and other natural events affect the temperature of our summers. The overall changes I see are not alarming me. I also see a number of behaviour adaptions from the bears which allow them to hunt successfully each summer.
“Polar Bears will not start to die like we sometimes see illustrated by organizations looking for donations. They slow down reproduction. I have seen our local population fluctuate over the almost 5 decades.
PG:How can eco-tourism help reinforce Churchill’s biodiversity?
WD: Ecotourism in Churchill is terribly political. But the rewards for those who work hard and provide honest service and integrity will pay off albeit sometimes with years of adversity. I have seen it myself as I grew my business that the eventual jealousy’s flare with our competition.
Spot the ‘white fluffy thing’ from the water front – onboard Matonabee – in the good hands of Captain Wally!(Picture by Praveen Gupta).
PG:What can budding eco-tourism destinations learn from the Churchill story?
WD: Make sure that there is opportunity for younger generations to create their business and thrive. Regulations are good. But there has to be a balance of freedom and regulations to keep innovators in business.
PG: Can you please expand on the interaction of species such as red fox and prairie fox / and the whales in this eco-system (belugas, bar heads and narwhals).
WD: Conceivably red fox and Arctic fox are close enough that they can actually breed together. Although I’ve never seen. They typically are at war with each other. The Arctic fox is significantly bigger and more robust than the red Fox of southern Manitoba. As I mentioned to you – our red Fox have various colour schemes that are normally not seen anywhere else. The Arctic fox are quite prolific breeders. Sometimes having as many as 24 young.
Arctic fox have been able to adapt to an Arctic coastal environment and often will follow the polar bears out on the ice to scavenge after a seal kill. Red Fox will not. Red Fox feel more comfortable in the boreal forest surrounded by trees and willows.
“Arctic fox have been able to adapt to an Arctic coastal environment and often will follow the polar bears out on the ice to scavenge after a seal kill. Red Fox will not.
Much of what surrounds Churchill is actually not tundra, but would be considered Tiaga – a Russian word which means transition. The transition between the boreal forest and the tundra. The word is noteworthy because the true Tiaga transition area near Churchill is about 100 miles wide and makes a significant geographical area.
Or be driven – for bear spotting on a tundra buggy – by a brilliant guide & story-teller Rob Watson! (Picture by Praveen Gupta).
Once you get north of the tree line onto the tundra the food supplies is significantly less for animals like the Arctic fox. Red fox generally don’t venture much above the tree line, but of course the Arctic fox does and actually reaches as far north as the high Arctic. All animal life has to start with vegetation somewhere. And of course, the Arctic fox can feed on lemmings., ptarmigan, voles, geese, and other migratory birds in the high arctic and even Arctic hares.
“It’s suspected that the warm estuarial waters also create a micro environment for the young whales who are born here.
With regards to the beluga whales, they actually will crossbreed with the narwhals. Researchers referred to them as narlugas. A hybrid between the two whales. With characteristics of both parents, but generally without a tusk. What I can tell you is the people who hunt them find it significantly harder to hunt the narwhals because they are considerably faster swimmers than the belugas.
The belugas have a migratory lifecycle migrating between areas known as Lancaster sound on the east side of Baffin Island and spend the winters in the high Arctic in areas where there is strong current and resulting open water. What brings them to this area is the brackish water environment, which is great for the fish that concentrate in the river mouths and provide for a quick layer of fat as the beluga’s will moult through the summer and require oily fish to build up the roughly 6 inches of fat layer around their bodies to help insulate them. It’s suspected that the warm estuarial waters also create a micro environment for the young whales who are born here.
PG: Many thanks for an excellent local flavour to this amazing and unique natural haven, Wally. May Churchill also transform intoan eco-tourism capital of the world.
The Diversity Blog 