illuminem
July 8, 2026
#ESG is alive, kicking and more relevant than ever before!
https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/top-10-thought-leaders-in-esg
Meena Raghunathan has been involved in the impact sector for four decades, with extensive experience in CSR, sustainability education, health, livelihoods, skilling, and community development. She was Executive Director, CSR, at GMR Varalakshmi Foundation, where she set up and led the CSR function for the GMR Group. Earlier, she worked at the Centre for Environment Education on national and international projects supporting sustainable development.
The Responsible Manager: Building Blocks Of An ESG Perspective is Meena’s latest book. She is also the author of Doing Good: Navigating the CSR Maze in India (HarperCollins, 2022) and co-author of To Every Parent, To Every School (Penguin, 2024). Meena also writes for children and educators, and blogs regularly. She serves on corporate and non-profit boards and is Visiting Faculty at MYRA School of Business.
Praveen Gupta (PG): Let us start from where we left the last time – during our conversation on your book ‘Doing Good’ you mentioned: “But I would say that ESG and CSR are not two journeys…”?
Meena Raghunathan (MR): Yes, I agree. They are part of the same journey towards Responsible Business. I see this journey has three key requirements:
- Shift of mindset from maximisation of profit to optimisation of value across profit, people and planet. If we continue to weigh businesses only in terms of financial outcomes, we will never achieve sustainability.
- Shift of mindset from shareholder focus to stakeholder focus. Businesses basically play to the gallery made up of shareholders. They other stakeholders are very, very secondary. They take salience only when there is a good chance their actions or reactions can disrupt profits. And while customers or employees are somewhere on the radar, affected communities and the environment often bear the brunt, but have no voice.
- Shift of mindset from short term to long term. Quarterly financial results are what move the corporate world and financial markets. So, anything for a good result, every quarter. And environmental and social good are seldom going to show up in these. In fact, in the short run, they may seem like taking away from profits!
The traditional mindsets are ingrained, and the challenge is to move the corporate world away from these.
PG: From a “tragedy of horizon” – climate breakdown is now at our doorstep. Do we have a plan of action for how we educate our coming generations and managers, are there any signs of it embedded in our business practices?
MR: I would say at the school level, Education for Sustainability, under one name or the other, has been around for four decades. As part of Centre for Environment Education, I myself have been part not only of developing model nationwide programmes and innovative materials, but also of policy development. The National Policy on Education also pays service to this. There are efforts to address these issues through curricular and co-curricular routes. However, it is also true that while we have seen some increase in environmental awareness and even action, it is also true that the devastation of the environment in this period is also very real! So, have we educators been having an impact? The answer is a bit depressing.
Environmental Studies is a compulsory subject in all Indian colleges due to a landmark Supreme Court directive from the 1991 Public Interest Litigation (PIL) filed by environmental lawyer M.C. Mehta. Following this, the University Grants Commission (UGC) mandated that all undergraduate students must complete a six-module course on the environment to graduate.
I am not sure how seriously this is taken. I again fear that it has not really not had a great impact.
And while some business schools have started modules on sustainability etc. in their curricula, it is not across all schools. And definitely not embedded in a way that makes thinking about these issues and an integral part of their business decision-making DNA.
“So, have we educators been having an impact? The answer is a bit depressing.
PG: “The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment” – the great Herman Daly stated the obvious. Doesn’t it remain a blind spot? Just as corporate social responsibility looks a mirage, and DEI is off the radar? Corporate environmental responsibility is generally not in sight.
MR: You can’t be more right. The environment does not figure anywhere in business decision-making. The laws offer some protection, but even these measures are rolled back sometimes in the effort to bring in ‘ease of doing business’.
Why go as far as DEI? Look at worker pays and working conditions. We want to say that we are a good destination for mass products and offer good prices. But those prices are at the cost of someone, and that is usually the worker. Look at the job security of workers – very often, smaller set-ups don’t even give appointment letters; they don’t give a break of salary and other elements of their pay; there are no means of redressal. Think of a not-very educated woman who depends on that salary. Will she speak out? So yes, the ‘S’ angle is not something that is taken seriously. Even when a company in itself is ‘good’, do they really get into the working of their supply chain, which is in fact what they are supposed to do?
PG: Is there too much emphasis on ticking-the-box rather than the substantive issues? Do you believe quarterly reporting could be an impediment?
MR: Yes, while some companies do things by the spirit and not by the law, many do not. Take the example of even CSR – the scramble to ensure 100% mandatory spend by March 31 leads to a frenzy of hardware projects (easier to spend and larger amounts are spent) sanctioned in January, as well as donations to eligible entities. Or the exercise of the BRSR. I have seen this being filled by junior people in different departments, without understanding the importance or the larger picture. To most of them, it is just one more format that trickles down from the top with a deadline. And few people at the higher levels look at it to see a coherent picture or using it as a means of feedback and areas of improvement.
“Yes, while some companies do things by the spirit and not by the law, many do not.
PG: The climate window is rapidly narrowing. Seven of the nine planetary boundaries have breached; Earth systems are wobbly; are we being good stewards for the coming generations? Is it just business as usual (BAU)?
No, we are not being good stewards. We do not even fully recognize, understand or accept that we are stewards. At some level, corporates do not even see their role in all this. They think it is the business of governments. This is because managers do not even register that the environment is where they get ALL their raw materials and inputs, and that it is where they dispose of ALL their wastes. And that both these aspects, environment as source and environment as sink, have their limits. And we have surpassing some of these limits, and have even surpassed them, and we are all in danger.
PG: A new UN brief courtesy Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research highlights governance challenge of Earth system tipping-points risks. It requires governance approaches that can anticipate long-term change and account for interactions across different parts of the Earth system. Doesn’t it take the governance level way beyond current level of imagination?
MR: Absolutely! But where is this to come from? Not the international level – the intergovernmental mechanisms are arguably at their weakest at this point in time. The world is facing armed conflict, disruptions and fractures at a scale I don’t remember. Countries are trying to hold their heads above the waters. I don’t see anyone trying to rise above this and take on a statesman-like role. So where is this governance going to come from?
“Although the book is written in a business context, there is also the hope that it will prompt some reflection on how these issues relate to us as individuals… ESG has to be in the DNA of every executive, every manager. That is the purpose with which I wrote my book.
PG: Do you believe extra-territorial regulatory demands like CBAM will compel – our exporters in designated products – to become environmentally conscious?
MR: If I were to take an example, I have seen that suppliers to multinationals like Walmart or Primark definitely do follow better labour standards, health and safety measures as well as environmental standards, than factories which are not in these value chains. So yes, extra-territorial regulations such as CBAM can encourage exporters of covered products to become more environmentally conscious because they create clear economic incentives. Exporters with lower emissions will incur lower compliance costs, making investments in energy efficiency, renewable energy, cleaner technologies, and emissions monitoring commercially beneficial.
But most firms may comply merely to retain access to the European market rather than from genuine environmental commitment. Smaller exporters may struggle with the cost of emissions measurement and verification, while firms with limited exposure to EU markets may have little incentive to alter production practices. Furthermore, the ability to reduce emissions depends on access to affordable clean technologies and supporting infrastructure.
Personally, I have concerns that such extra-territorial regulations may disproportionately affect developing economies and function as non-tariff trade barriers.
PG: I pick this red alert from my interaction with Dr. Mark Trexler (an authority in climate risk knowledge management space): “Focusing on shareholder concerns implicitly gives a company permission to heavily discount the future, to take advantage of economic externalities, to play down worker health and safety, et al. of which are fundamentally at odds with the stated goals of ESG.” Without the guidance of public policies and measures would this be achievable – as the SEBI struggles with the BRSR even for a limited few?
MR: Yes, BRSR is only the first step. But it is a necessary step. I have mentioned earlier how the form is filled. So, we know that just compliance and filling forms does not do it. We have to change the mindset and perspectives across the corporation. It is not enough to have an enlightened leader. ESG has to be in the DNA of every executive, every manager. That is the purpose with which I wrote my book.
The purpose is to sensitise managers to these issues and help them relate ESG concerns to their everyday work…
The purpose is to sensitise managers to these issues and help them relate ESG concerns to their everyday work, whatever their domain or sector. It is founded on the premise that integration of these concerns is the right thing to do and will, in the long run, benefit the business as well as all stakeholders. Once every manager internalises the need to incorporate these perspectives into their business approach, ESG concerns will start getting addressed, and the company also establishes a more ethical foundation.
It tries to bring about three mindset shifts, which I mentioned earlier, that I think are fundamental to the change process:
- The realization that the success of a business must be measured not on profit maximisation alone but on benefits to people and planet as well.
- From Shareholder Value to Stakeholder Value.
- From Short Term to Long Term Perspective.
Although the book is written in a business context, there is also the hope that it will prompt some reflection on how these issues relate to us as individuals. What are the personal decisions and actions we can take and the changes we can make for a more sustainable and just world.
I want to end with a quotation from Gandhiji (1937): True economics never militates against the highest ethical standard just as true ethics, to be worth its name, must at the same time be also good economics. True economics…stands for social justice, it promotes the good of all equally, including the weakest, and is indispensable for decent life.
PG: Many thanks, Meena! I really appreciate your candid insights, as always. With best wishes in all your ongoing endeavours.
illuminem
July 4, 2026
Link to the blog interview also carried by illuminem: https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/why-do-we-struggle-to-act-collectively
illuminem
June 30, 2026
illuminem post: “We are all as much a part of the solution as we are part of the problem…” | illuminem
LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7477630272864260096/
Tansy Troy is an India-based educationalist, poet-writer, illustrator, performer, and maker of bird and animal masks. Currently working as Director of Performing Arts at Shrewsbury International School India (Bhopal), Tansy writes and illustrates while mentoring her pupils to become dynamic and passionate creatives in a climate that needs change more urgently than ever.
She firmly believes that art and creative expression is fundamental to the change we need to see in the world, she conceived The Apple Press, a young people’s eco journal @the.applepress which includes poetry, stories, articles and artwork by creators as young as eight years old alongside household names in literature. The Apple Press is in its fifth year of publication.
In 2023, Tansy published her first collection of poetry, Ratnakosha, (Red River Press) and thereafter, was invited to contribute poems, articles and reviews to The Hindustan Times, The Hindu, Scroll India, Punch Magazine, Art Amour, Open Magazine, The Chakkar, Sanctuary Asia, Usawa, and Frontline. Her verse has been anthologised in The Yearbook of Indian Poetry in English 2023, 2024 and 2025 (Pippa Rann, London) and The Tagore Anthology 2024.
She published her second collection, With Earth as My Witness (Red River) and third Singing to the Eumenides (Writers Workshop) in 2025. Her forthcoming novel about the crisis on Great Nicobar, The Great Nicobar Journey, is published this month (June 2026) with Speaking Tiger/Talking Cub.
Tansy’s watercolour illustrations have appeared extensively in Frontline and Green Lit Fest and her larger-than- life bird and animal masks perform regularly on stages and at festivals across India.
As a performer for young people, Tansy nests at Triveni Kala Sangam (Delhi) and tours eco theatre productions around schools, theatres and galleries and festivals with her team of young actors and musicians. A recently acclaimed performance of Tara and the Great Nicobar Journey performed in March at Triveni Kala Sangam was celebrated in Frontline. In 2025, she worked as an ArtReach Fellow with the students of Udayan Care Home and before that, for eight years at King’s College India, Rohtak (Haryana).
Praveen Gupta (PG): Theatre, Prose, Poetry & Painting: What’s your first love?
Tansy Troy (TT): Argh! How could you make the first question so intensely difficult to answer Praveen! You see, for me, all these expressive forms are so incredibly interlinked, interdependent, even. As a playwright, I create interactive, musical stories in which masked birds and animals invite an audience to be part of their tale. As a writer of prose, I am also very much concerned with creating works of fiction which inspire young readers to jump up and do stuff, motivational stories that change the world for the better. As a poet, I journey deep within, searching to resolve old tales I carry in my bones or to paint and sketch with words fleeting impressions of the scenes witnessed on this great journey. And as a painter, I become immersed in colour and detail and rhythm, but in a more special way than with words.
So I would not say that any one art form pulls me in more than another: each expression has its place and time and importance as a means of communication. My first love? The Earth herself. And everything I create, a song chanted back to her.
PG: What do you paint and surely you do not stop there? Your artwork blends with theatre and publishing – how exactly?
TT: Yes, exactly – as above! I make masks by hand for the productions that I write and compose for, and also paint pictures of the endangered birds and animals represented in the dramas. These pictures get published as postcards on khadi paper and I sell packs of them at independent bookstores across India. So on the production side of things, there is this sort of constant flow from inspiration or urgent cause to material representation (in the form of poem, mask, watercolour, script, postcard, story) to product on bookshelves, in shops and homes or on the stage in the theatre or at festivals.
“All work is a quest to support and celebrate her bounty…
PG: Nature is a central and recurring theme?
TT: Yes. All work is a quest to support and celebrate her bounty, or to alert the world to her suffering.
PG: As a performer for young people – what is your focal point? How do you draw them in to perform/ participate?
TT: I perform, or began performing, because it was the most practical way to get the tales and songs I was writing out there to an audience. Since working with troupes of young performers, it has become even more fun, since I get to direct a bit more and just join in from the side of the stage, more often than not accompanied by my long-time stage companion, tabla maestro Pranshu Chatur Lal. The ‘drawing in’ of both young performer, audience member and all the accompanying grown ups is usually through music – song and body percussion – but also, critically, through theme and shared experience of an urgent cause on Planet Earth.
“These often come to me in dreams or half sleep, along with the melodies of their songs…
And yes, I write the initial scripts, but my performers inspire me to change and adapt the whole way through the rehearsal process, sometimes even to the day of the show itself, which can often be largely improvised. The lyrics of the songs are the only things that stay pretty much the same from the very beginning to the end of a production run. These often come to me in dreams or half sleep, along with the melodies of their songs.
PG: We are paying a hefty price for tampering Nature and barely realise we owe everything to it. How does one convey that?
TT: Well, in a way, by continuing to bring awareness to the beauty and predicament of Earth at this present moment we all mutually inhabit. By finding ways to exemplify our interdependence, and also to bring out themes of compassion, friendship, teamwork and love as redemptive qualities we all share alongside avarice and ignorance, I hope the spectator, be they reader, viewer or audience, will understand that we are all as much a part of the solution as we are part of the problem.
“My first love? The Earth herself. And everything I create, a song chanted back to her…
PG: What is Tara and the Great Nicobar Journey about?
TT: This is the stage adaptation of The Great Nicobar Journey, the young people’s novel I’ve just published with Talking Cub/Speaking Tiger. It tells the tale of a group of intrepid rare and endangered species of Great Nicobar who decide that they must journey to Delhi to make their voices heard and protest on the doorsteps of people who can make a difference.
“A powerful tale about friendship, resistance, and the fight to protect one shared planet“
PG: Isn’t Climate a serious inter-generational issue?
TT: I mean the good thing is that Climate is by now so central to our collective survival that every school curriculum in the world must engage with it wholeheartedly, scientifically and completely in order to inspire the next generations to come up with increasingly efficient solutions to our impossible and relentless exploitation of the very air we breathe, the very water we drink and the very earth from which we feed. We’re all in this together, surely! But I would say that the younger generations definitely have a more acute awareness of the dangers we have put both ourselves and their future in, through sheer unbridled consumption and opportunistic exploitation of a finite (though infinitely patient) Earth.
“But I would say that the younger generations definitely have a more acute awareness of the dangers we have put both ourselves and their future in…
PG: How does one invoke the powerful & diverse traditions of this country and leverage the sacredness of nature?
TT: Through theatre, music, painting and poetry! The wonderful thing about India, and the reason I can never bear to travel very far from her, is because she still has such a rich and living heritage of devotional art forms to express huge gratitude and awe of the wild world and all the beauty that encompasses. I am constantly inspired by miniatures, by the many weaves of fabric from different states, by the call to prayer and chant of mantra, by the curve of an antique statue in a remote shrine or temple, by forests where only very few humans have ever stepped.
The interconnectedness is still thriving and respected and understood in India. I find an awareness and trust in pretty much every place I go, from village to centre of bustling metropolis. It’s worth talking about this, because the connect is still right here, and can be a massive example, therefore a hugely helpful guide to the rest of the world.
PG: Much appreciate these insights into your fascinating work, Tansy! May your creativity keep blossoming…
illuminem
June 22, 2026
This article is also published on The Diversity Blog. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy Thought Leaders, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
The illuminem page link: “I think we are watching real time the equivalent of the decline of the Roman empire…” | illuminem
illuminem
June 17, 2026
Link: “SRM is controversial… but all solutions should be considered…” | illuminem
Marguerite Lynas is a Gen Z-er. She is remarkably clear-sighted about the opportunities and threats presented by Climate breakdown to her generation and beyond. “Through my experiences in people & culture, healthcare, and hospitality, I’ve become increasingly interested in creating experiences and environments that help people feel more connected, supported, and understood”.
A Psychology graduate from McGill University, Marguerite is currently interning in France. She enjoys a global perspective shaped by her own multicultural upbringing. Curious about people, wellbeing, and emotional awareness – her insights are full of optimism and pragmatism.
Praveen Gupta (PG): What’s your take on the unravelling Climate breakdown?
Marguerite Lynas (ML): Climate breakdown is an environmental and a human crisis. Of course, it’s about rising temperatures, biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, and the myriad of already – unfolding consequences. But at its core, it’s also about our relationship with the world around us and with each other.
I’ve always been fascinated by human behaviour, and climate change raises the question of: why do we struggle to act collectively when we know the threat is real?
I don’t think that fear alone is a useful response. I think there are many intricacies to it; the scale of the challenge is immense and we can’t undermine its complexity. At the same time, I think there is growing consciousness around our interconnectedness – with each other and with nature.
For me, the conversation is about, beyond prevent damage, reimagining how we want to live and care for the systems that sustain us. In many ways, climate change is forcing to ask deeper questions about the world we want to create, and the things we value moving forward.
“ In many ways, climate change is forcing to ask deeper questions about the world we want to create…
PG: How do you see it impacting the coming generations?
ML: To me, there is undoubtedly an element of unfairness.
My generation, and especially the ones that follow, will inherit many consequences of decisions we didn’t make. At the same time, I don’t want to frame it as a story of blame between generations. Many people in previous generations were operating within systems that prioritised economic growth and consumption, often without fully understanding the long-term consequences. But I think it’s important to remember that each generation operated within the context of its time. When we think about the late 1940s – after periods of war and economic hardship, it’s understandable that people sought prosperity and comfort and were eager to spend. Ultimately, that too is human psychology.
What concerns me most is that climate change will amplify the inequalities that already exist. Those with the fewest resources are often the most vulnerable to environmental disruptions, despite having contributed the least to the problem. That is where I think the unfairness lies.
At the same time, I see reasons for hope. Younger generations have more global awareness thanks to the interconnectedness. While the challenge is significant, I also think there is opportunity to rethink our priorities and build systems that are more sustainable and conscious of our interdependence – and with that, more equitable.
“What concerns me most is that climate change will amplify the inequalities that already exist…
PG: Does a multicultural upbringing better equip you to cope with it?
ML: I think a multicultural upbringing has shaped how I view complexity.
Growing up internationally gave me a strong sense of global citizenship. I feel very connected not just to one place, but to many different cultures and ecosystems across Asia, North America, and Europe. It taught me that there are many ways of seeing the world, and that no one culture has all the answers.
Because of that, I believe the most meaningful solutions will emerge when diverse people from these different ecosystems come together around shared challenges like climate change. Ultimately, it is a global issue that requires discipline and cooperation across borders
Living across different countries has also made me more comfortable with uncertainty and change. Moving, adapting, and rebuilding community teaches you that growth often comes from learning to navigate the unfamiliar. I think that mindset is particularly valuable in a world facing complex challenges that don’t have simple answers. More than anything, my experiences have reinforced the belief that our futures are deeply interconnected. Climate change may affect different regions differently, but it is a shared challenge, and our ability to respond to it will depend on how well we work with one another.
“I believe the most meaningful solutions will emerge when diverse people from these different ecosystems come together around shared challenges...
PG: What draws you to the intersection of holistic health and technology?
ML: When I talk about holistic health, I’m referring to an approach that recognises the complexity of human beings. It recognizes that we are mental, physical, social, and emotional beings – and wellbeing needs to take into account all of these dimensions. A problem I sometimes see is thinking of the brain, the body, and behaviour in isolation – when in reality they are very interconnected.
What fascinates me about holistic health and technology, is that both fields ultimately ask the same question: how can we make people live better lives?
Technology has put so much knowledge, tools, and support at an arm’s reach. All of these are accessible to us more than ever before. The problem, to me, is when we think of it as primarily a means to increase efficiency, rather than human flourishing. The intersection becomes interesting when technology helps people understand each other better, deepen curiosity, strengthen positive habits, access and ask for support, and feel more connected rather than more disconnected.
At the same time, striking a healthy boundary with technology is the true challenge that exists. But despite that, I see so much potential in the space where these two meet, and it’s something I’m very interested in exploring further.
“The problem, to me, is when we think of it as primarily a means to increase efficiency, rather than human flourishing…
PG: As a Gen Z-er, how do you believe AI could help democratise mental health and wellbeing?
ML: I think AI is a gift when it comes to democratising access to mental health and wellbeing.
Many people around the world cannot access therapy, coaching, or health education, even though these feel like fundamental resources. They have become extremely costly, sometimes inaccessible geographically, and still carry a certain stigma in many contexts. AI has the potential to lower some of these barriers and provide support at a scale that was previously unimaginable.
At the same time, technology cannot be seen as a replacement. By no means do I believe AI can replace human connection. From a psychological perspective, and particularly through the lens of the nervous system, there are aspects of healing that happen in relationship and simply cannot be replicated artificially.
So, I see AI as a powerful complement, not a substitute. The risk comes when we begin replacing human relationships rather than strengthening them. The opportunity lies in using AI to expand access to knowledge, reduce barriers to support, and carve pathways towards real-world connection – and I think this, to me, is where the focus should be.
“I think AI is a gift when it comes to democratising access to mental health and wellbeing…
PG: Your interest in creating experiences and environments that help people feel more connected, supported, and understood – is that a prescription for creating self-supporting communities in the age of climate crisis?
ML: I think we live in a society that constantly pushes us to do more, to be more: more connected, more ambitious, more successful. Yet despite being more connected through technology, the hyper-connectivity of modern life ironically seems to pull us further away from ourselves.
I was listening to as podcast recently where Seth Porges referred to this as an “autonomic society:” one that pushes our nervous system in these states of survival and hyper-vigilance.
As far as I understand my purpose today, it lies in helping bring people back to themselves.
I’ve always been fascinated by spaces where people naturally come together. How some environments make us feel guarded, while others invite openness, curiosity, and connection. I’ve experienced this through moving countries, having to rebuild community, through travelling, and through the countless hours I happily spend in cafes and other third spaces.
When I talk about creating experiences and environments, I’m interested in designing conditions for belonging and meaningful connection. Environments that make us expand – potentially through wellbeing initiatives, educational projects, events, or digital platforms.
Facing challenges like climate change, loneliness, and rapid technological change, I think community is one of the most important resources we have. Humans were never designed to navigate life alone. From a psychological perspective, we co-regulate through relationships. We find safety, and resilience through one another.
So in many ways, I do think creating stronger communities is part of the answer. Resilient communities are what allow us to adapt, support one another, maintain hope, and ultimately come together around solutions with a collective purpose in the face of challenges like climate change.
“Facing challenges like climate change, loneliness, and rapid technological change, I think community is one of the most important resources we have…
PG: Is there anything else you would wish to say wrt inter-generational risk?
ML: One thing I think about often is that every generation inherits both problems and possibilities.
It’s easy to focus exclusively on what younger generations are losing, and on all the disasters and negative things currently happening in the world. But we are also inheriting unprecedented access to knowledge, global communities, and opportunities for collaboration. The question is not only, what kind of planet do we want to leave to future generations? But also, what kind of relationships, communities, and values do we want to leave behind?
For me, climate resilience is evidently about coming up with the right infrastructure and technology. But most importantly, it is about human resilience: our ability to care for one another, to adapt together, and to maintain a sense of hope and responsibility in the face of uncertainty.
PG: Grateful for these brilliant insights, Marguerite. I really appreciate your optimism and pragmatism.
Sanctuary Asia
June-July, 2026
Tim Buckley founded Climate Energy Finance Australasia in 2022, having co-founded and worked with the global energy finance think-tank IEEFA over 2013-2021. For 17 years Tim was a Managing Director at Citigroup, Head of Australasian Equity Research. Tim has published over 100 reports on the global energy transition.
Tim has 35 years financial markets experience, including providing public interest related financial analysis on the energy transition since 2013, studying China, India and Australia.
Praveen Gupta (PG): The top 4 Asian economies (China, Japan, India and S. Korea) are the ones most dependent on the Hormuz supply chain. Why and how does the blockade effect spill over worldwide?
Tim Buckley (TB): I view Trump’s motives as entirely self-serving, paying back his US fossil fuel funders by taking out a major region of competing fossil fuel supply, thereby pushing up the profits for the remaining players, of which the US is the #1 fossil fuel producer in the world. Trump initially bragged US fossil fuel firms would profit very nicely by his war on Iran, ignoring the massive cost to the average American from higher inflation and higher interest rates.
The US war against Iran has caused a spike in global inflation, and added cost pressures to the greater Asian region, given most countries here are very heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. One strategic mis-calculation by the US was to assume that China would be hit hard by higher imported fossil fuel costs, but of course China was exceptionally well prepared with huge oil stockpiles and having pursued electrification and decarbonisation as a national priority to improve energy independence.
“I expect one lasting outcome of the US war on Iran is that Greater Asia will pursue far faster electrification and decarbonisation investments to build energy security”
PG: Wind and solar have the lowest cost per Kwh of any power generation method, the fastest response time, the shortest deployment time, zero pollution, complete recycling of components which can also be sourced domestically, and a fuel supply that will not run out. Are we at an inflection point?
TB: Yes, I expect one lasting outcome of the US war on Iran is that Greater Asia will pursue far faster electrification and decarbonisation investments to build energy security. This is going to be underpinned by the amazing technological improvements being seen, particularly in Chinese batteries, EVs and wind turbine scale. The ongoing deflation of cleantech even as the technology capabilities are improving will accelerate deployments.
I see batteries (BESS and behind the meter) as the largest disrupting factor in the global energy system in 2026. But EV adoption is accelerating everywhere except in the US, and that builds energy independence from the Middle East, but also will see vehicle-to-grid bidirectional charging technologies accelerate by the end of this decade, building grid resilience even as it allows even greater speed of integration of VRE into the electricity system. China is way ahead of the west, and with India’s massive reliance on imported fossil fuels, and chronic air pollution, I see rapid uptake there continuing as well.
PG: Understand that the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) dropped proposed rules that would have made it harder for a data centre group, running mostly on fossil fuels, to claim its energy needs were entirely met by renewable power to hit its climate goals?
TB: The US undermining of global action on dealing with the climate crisis means previous western led efforts for global solutions are being undermined, no doubt. But that plays totally into the hands of the long term nearly inevitable move from a uni-polar world to a multi polar world where there is more room for China and increasingly India to play a central global re-write of the world rules. While Trump remains, we are likely to see the development of regional and then inter-regional blocs of alignment on things like carbon pollutions rules, and carbon emissions pricing. My hope is the EU CBAM will serve as a model for a path to an Asian CBAM, but China will want to get its domestic settings totally in place first, and we are seeing that happen real time in 2026 with a 50% expansion of the China ETS into 6 key heavy industry sectors by the end of 2027.
PG: Why are voters in America increasingly turning against data centres in their backyards?
TB: Data centres are backed by massive pools of financial capital, and speed and scale of deployment is the current US land grab, and those developers don’t care about the need for a social licence to operate, nor the cost of enabling services like electricity and water to get established. The result is double digit annual rises in electricity prices as electricity demand rises faster than new supply. This is made even more pronounced given Trump has undermined investor confidence in new renewable energy infrastructure investments. The US is under investing in the low cost renewable energy infrastructure in order to keep aligned with the Whitehouse, but this is clearly undermining US decarbonisation and causing rapid energy cost inflation.
“The rise of carbon pricing in international trade will only make worse the declining profile of US exports over time”
PG: Why is the US feeling a pinch despite being a surplus producer and a global leader? Will fracking keep the US ahead of the pack despite the Climate crisis?
TB: I think we are watching real time the equivalent of the decline of the Roman empire, with the breakdown of key public institutions and self-interest being the order of the day in the US. The rise of carbon pricing in international trade will only make worse the declining profile of US exports over time, and the US is leaving the field when it comes to developing the cleantech zero emissions industries of the future. The US economy will survive, but Trump is playing entirely into the hands of China in terms of their lack of strategic thinking for long term competitiveness.
PG: Do you see some vigour in realignment of supply chains in wake of Hormuz?
TB: Yes. I think this has entirely vindicated China’s massive ongoing investment in OFDI globally, both in cleantech and upstream mining supply chains since the start of this decade. China now not only dominates battery and EV manufacturing globally, but also the upstream battery cathode and anode markets, and increasingly the critical minerals and strategic metal mining supply chains globally so it is increasingly able to withstand and ignore the bleatings of the US whitehouse.
CEF follows the money, and China is using geopolitics and OFDI in a strategic win-win manner in many countries globally that are increasingly unable to rely on the US to counter balance China’s internationalisation strategy. When China is offering to build industrial value-add precincts in return for access to other countries mineral resources, this is reshaping global alliances permanently across Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America. Even the EU has been subject to constant undermining by the US, such that if China continues to play the long game, means I would not be surprised to see climate solutions a key aspect of building stronger EU-China collaborations as the US stands idly by.
“China’s relative standing is building. I expect to continue to see the Yuan rise as a functional currency in global trade”
PG: How critical is the Malacca Strait in the current state of geo-politics?
TB: It is geopolitically important, but China is winning the long game of geopolitics without resorting to force. Simply by letting the US undermine its own world standing, China’s relative standing is building. I expect to continue to see the Yuan rise as a functional currency in global trade, particularly given China’s growing global relevance and the increasing unreliability and unpredictability of the US as the global functional currency reserve.
PG: To what extent has the oil shortage spurred use of coal worldwide?
TB: At the margin, coal has benefited from Trump’s war against Iran. But as we have discussed, the long term strategic imperative for most countries is to align with the climate science and their treaty obligations under the Paris Agreement. Besides, the simple economic reality is that wind and solar firmed by batteries and transport / freight powered by EV is underpinned by economics, as well as energy security, I don’t see the Iran war as stimulating a long term rebound in coal. Coal’s global share of the energy mix peaked a decade ago at 42%, and is now down to ~30% globally in 2026. Coal’s share will continue to be progressively diluted.
China continues to build new coal power plants, but every year the average coal plant utilisation has declined for a decade – coal serves in China as a backup to their massive ongoing deployment of 300GW pa of renewable capacity deployments, but this back up role in China is going to be rapidly undermined as BESS deployments continue to grow 30-40% annually, with China alone representing half the world’s BESS deployments in 2025.
“If policy makers can be effective in resisting the AI vested interests… that will underpin a lot more electricity supply – driving electrification and decarbonisation in the process”
PG: Is the nuclear option ready to fulfill the AI industry’s growing demand?
TB: No. Nuclear might see an uplift in investment in the US in support of AI, given government subsidies and their need for a massive lift in electricity supply even as they undermine wind deployments, but nuclear is simply too expensive, and too slow, and faces too much social licence to operate to see a global renaissance any time soon. Solar is cheap and plentiful each and every day for 8 hours, this guts the economic merit of nuclear plants than need to run 24/7 to justify their massive capital cost.
PG: “Energy for AI, and AI for energy: Why the flywheel doesn’t spin yet” (Wei Wang)?
TB: The massive investment in datacentres to power AI can be marshalled to enable the investment in huge amounts of firmed renewable energy as an enabler. Capital is plentiful, if policy makers can be effective in resisting the AI vested interests, they can ensure data centres sign long term firmed renewable PPAs that will underpin a lot more electricity supply – driving electrification and decarbonisation in the process. That is the trend here in Australia, but vested interests will resist being made to bear costs they’d rather inflict on the public instead.
PG: Grateful for these insights into your crystal ball, Tim! You have always been well ahead of time.
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