Stewarding away from “tragedy of the horizon”

TOI blogs

January 22, 2026

LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7419958646102708224/

My Op-ed on TOI blogs: https://lnkd.in/d9dt8UYy.

I begin with a quote from Mark Carney‘s famous speech of 2015, long before his speech at the ongoing #WorldEconomicForum – #Davos – went viral!

With seven of the nine #planetaryboundaries breached, several #earthsystems are wobbly and likely to hit #tippingpoint. The once faraway manifestations – what Mr. Carney the former Bank of England Governor and the current Canadian PM alluded to as “a tragedy of the horizon” – have begun to unfold before us.

The renowned Dr. Johan Rockström warns: Many scientists, myself included, are increasingly worried that, by continuing to warm the planet, we are bringing multiple Earth system tipping points closer to being crossed.

The #AMOC, for instance, was expected to stall only by the turn of the next century. Such is the intensity and speed of what is unravelling that many #climatemodels are faltering.

“An actuarial review of key climate change assumptions shows we may have seriously underestimated the rate of warming as well as the related economic impacts”, says Sandy Trust of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (#IFoA).

The Parasol Lost report – from the IFoA and University of Exeter warns: “That without action, global warming is now likely to reach 2°C before 2050, a level associated with catastrophic impacts on societies and economies worldwide… This raises the risk of climate-driven #inflation, #financialshocks, and the withdrawal of insurance from high-risk areas much sooner than many expect…”

Other than risk carriers, #insurers (and #reinsurers) are also investors and risk managers. Do they have the luxury of business as usual? Who is better equipped than the actuaries to #steward the insurers away from “tragedy of the horizon”?