February 9, 2025
The two stories are just that. Here is the originator, best selling author Michele Wucker, explaining the phrase:
What is a Gray Rhino?
“The Gray Rhino is a metaphor for the threats that we can see and acknowledge yet do nothing about: the two ton thing that should be hard to ignore, but from which we look away even though it’s in our interest to get away before it charges. It may be pawing the ground, snorting, and getting ready to charge at you; or it may still be a ways up the road when you still have time to manage things before they become urgent.
I created it for talking about big policy issues, like debt crisis and financial fragilities, climate change, and inequality. Along that vein, it’s struck a chord during the Covid-19 pandemic as so many of us ask why so many warnings went ignored. But it’s also useful for business issues, whether outdated business processes and systemic decision-making failures, industry trends, or product safety issues.
The gray rhino counters two familiar metaphors. The elephant in the room normalizes saying and doing nothing. That’s not okay. The black swan gives people a “nobody could have seen it coming” cop-out excuse for ignoring gray rhino problems that many people did see coming and warned about.
The Gray Rhino Framework
The Gray Rhino metaphor and framework is a way to get people to acknowledge and counteract our vulnerability to obvious, dynamic risks not just despite but because they are so obvious. There are five stages, each of which has different obstacles and strategic imperatives that shape your response:
- Denial. Insistence that there is no threat.
- Muddling. Acknowledgement of the risk but come up with a litany of reasons not to do anything about it.
- Diagnosis. A switch to the active planning stage, analyzing what it takes to solve the problem and getting our ducks in a row.
- Panic. Frenzied anxiety in face of an imminent crisis; the time when we’re most likely to act but also most likely to make the wrong decision absent a strong action plan.
- Action. Taking steps – often led by positive mavericks – to avert the problem, inspiring others to join in the action, tracking the results, and adjusting as needed.”
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January 16, 2025
My turn for the autograph: Picture courtesy Bittu Sahgal
Amitav Ghosh’s conversation with Raghu Karnad turned out to be more than an ‘evening of wild fictions’. To many who are not old enough and haven’t followed the master’s craft from his early days – Wild Fictions Essays marks a convenient entry point. For someone like me, who started following him since his ‘campus notes’ days at the Delhi University – from the ‘Emergency’ era – this was about gathering the nuggets from the tweens. Whether between academics or the long list of books, while Ghosh metamorphosed as a great author.
“The pieces in this collection are about a wide variety of subjects, yet there is one thread that runs through most of them: of bearing witness to a rupture in time, of chronicling the passing of an era that began 300 years ago, in the eighteenth century” – writes Ghosh in the introduction.
“This was, of course, the period that saw the birth of modernity and industrial civilization, in which, under the leadership of the British empire, the west tightened its grip over most of the world, culminating ultimately in the emergence of the US as the planet’s sole superpower. Starting with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ‘unipolar moment’ peaked at the turn of the millennium and then ran into a series of profound shocks that began in 2001.”
The book commences with six chapters on Climate Change and Environment, a cause Ghosh champions passionately and deservedly stays atop his list of priorities. In The Nutmeg’s Curse he narrates the extractive exploits of the European coloniser. The resulting terraforming has had significant climate implications for the planet. However, today the ways of life of much of humanity is extractive – we have all become colonisers of nature – pushing ourselves towards irreversible tipping points.
Despite the hubris, the Homo sapiens is at a crossroad. Howsoever compelling geopolitics may appear, are we missing signals of a sixth extinction – as the decibels rise?
“High modernity taught us that the Earth was inert and existed to be exploited by human beings for their own purposes. In this time of angels, we are slowly begining to understand that in order to hear the Earth, we must first learn to love it”.
Are we ready to accept this stark truth – as Ghosh concludes?
Illuminem
January 15, 2025
Delighted to be in the august company of some exceptional #Climate champions. illuminem makes this possible in its uniquely pathbreaking style.
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The Journal, Chartered Insurance Institute
January 10, 2025
The Journal link: https://thejournal.cii.co.uk/2025/01/10/climate-change-amocalypse-now
LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7284041803975061504/
My Op-Ed for The Journal – Chartered Insurance Institute – highlights the potential impact of an impaired Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC). And why insurers, as well as other money pipelines must act.
The critical role of oceans in climate regulation tends to be undermined. #Anthropogenic onslaught is driving this “great global ocean conveyor belt” towards a #tipping point.
Unhindered fossil fuel burning and relentless deforestation are resulting into skyrocketing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as rapid Arctic and Greenland ice melting. That is adversely transforming ocean water chemistry and dynamics.
Climate scientists believe that a substantial weakening of AMOC might result in significant, possibly catastrophic, climate breakdown. Oceanographer and climatologist Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf has been closely following the developments and regularly shares valuable alerts.
Study by Dr. Susanne Ditlevsen and Dr. Peter Ditlevsen “confirms the huge concerns about a possible collapse of one of the major tipping points in the climate”.
That could literally leave parts of the planet frozen and much of the rest boiling.
Also published by Illuminem
December 23, 2024
https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/pfas-pervasive-and-insurance-averse
Illuminem
December 18, 2024
https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoicesprofile/praveen-gupta?post=ozone-slayers-reincarnated
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A little over 30 years ago – our world was on a precipice. Growing usage of #CFCs had literally opened up a hole in the sky. Thus exposing a rising number of inhabitants to deadly ozone exposure.
Time magazine of May 17th, 1993 – carried a brilliant two pager (‘Ozone Slayers’) by eugene linden. It highlighted how the mess created by American politics was messing up with the environment.
A visionary that Eugene is – he correctly anticipated a bigger mess in making (then) arising from rapidly surging greenhouse gas emissions (#GHGs).
I am inclined to draw a parallel between yesterday’s mess and today’s. Notwithstanding the much larger scale of the current challenge, the political muddle in the US reads like a replay.
Could we step out of the adverse ramifications, yet again?
Here, I take the liberty of oscillating between the past and the future, in present tense: To ensure we stay steadfast to our belief and responsibilities.
Despite a damning essay – Eugene kept his faith in our ability to course correct by his phenomenal ongoing work.
“I have five kids and grand-kids, I have got to be optimistic” – he says.
Sanctuary Asia
My column: Climate Futures and Beyond
December – January, 2024
By a lucky twist of fate (read markets), the insurance industry has a personal stake in mitigating and adapting to climate change, and inadvertently protecting the environment. The overlapping crises of a warming climate, biodiversity loss, and pollution present grave dangers to life, livelihood and industry. Owing to its expertise over multiple decades in dealing with risks, the industry is well placed to analyse the threats posed by the polycrisis, and suggest ways to manage and mitigate its fallout. The first item on this new column by Praveen Gupta is PFAS, a toxic bioaccumulating substance that has invaded the biosphere, and the insurance industry’s risk portfolio.
The Journal (CII) Op-ed published by Illuminem
December1, 2024
https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/dangers-of-the-new-asbestos
With the use of so-called ‘forever chemicals’ beginning to result in lawsuits, Praveen Gupta examines the risks for the insurance markets.
Losses related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS ) – referred to as the ‘new asbestos’ – ought to serve as a warning for insurers on the regulations and liabilities. However, are the lessons being learnt? PFAS are widely used in shampoo, feminine hygiene products, mobile phone screens, wall paint, furniture, carpets, adhesives, food packaging, cooking surfaces such as Teflon, firefighting foam, and the insulation of electric wire. PFAS are also used by the cosmetic industry in most cosmetics and personal care products, including lipstick, eye liner, mascara, foundation, concealer, lip balm, blush and nail polish.
Blog interview published by Illuminem.com:
November 28, 2024
Dr. Alessandra Lehmen is an outstanding Environmental and Climate lawyer qualified in the US and Brazil. She has an LL.M. degree in Environmental Law and Policy from Stanford, a Ph.D. in International Law from UFRGS and an MBA from FGV. Alessandra is a Postdoctoral Laureate at the Make Our Planet Great Again Program of the Presidency of France.
Alessandra was at the COP29 as Climate Law and litigation expert.
PG: Climate Finance/New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) first. Your take please?
AL: Developed nations have agreed to “take the lead” to channel “at least” $300 billion a year into developing countries by 2035. These flows of capital are vital to developing countries and to keep the 1.5-degree goal alive, and, without accounting for inflation, this is three times the Copenhagen 100 bn, set to expire in 2025. However, the new NCQG number if still largely insufficient to address mitigation, adaptation, and L&D financing needs. Amidst intense debate as to whether a bad deal was better than no deal, the new goal was objected by countries like India and Nigeria (but the text was adopted anyway), and was met with disappointment by many developing nations.
Beyond the numbers, there are noteworthy changes in wording as to sources (calling on “all actors” to scale up funds from “all public and private sources”, including MDBs, to “at least $1.3tn” by 2035) and contributor base (encouraging developing countries to contribute to climate finance “on a voluntary basis”). With an aim to close the finance gap, the “Baku to Belém roadmap to $1.3tn”, a last-minute addition to the text, is now tasked with producing a report on how to scale up finance at COP30 in Brazil.
The good news is that, according to the IPCC AR6, “There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps.” The bad news is that there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action.
PG: May I ask what next?
AL: There is much finance work ahead.
First, we need a clear understanding of what actually counts as climate finance, as it can be assessed through several criteria – for instance, by type of finance instruments (e.g., development aid, equity, or debt); whether it is provided at market or concessional rates; by origin (from public, private, or blended instruments; whether it stems from national or subnational governments, development financial institutions (DFIs), private financial institutions or multilateral funds; by direction of finance flows (domestic, bilateral, or multilateral); whether a project is considered only for the elements that genuinely have a climate component, and so on. Another source of uncertainty is the assessment of whether climate finance is ‘new and additional’ under Copenhagen as this is a concept that lacks formal definition and is therefore subject to interpretation. Also, data regarding climate finance flows are gathered through various methodologies, each with its own interpretations, so we need better metrics.
Second, we need to develop models that don’t drive countries further into debt. De-risking is necessary, but non-concessional models that tie developing countries repayment of high amounts of debt service do more harm than good.
Third, at the risk of stating the obvious, we need to review subsidies: according to the IMF, fossil-fuel subsidies surged to a record $7tn in 2022.
Fourth, and perhaps more importantly, to redirect the global flow of capital, economy-wide, to the climate transition, per Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement. Despite efforts by the United Nations to create universal categories that promote transparency and accountability, there is still no consensus on what counts as climate finance, and these ambiguities make it harder to assess the amount of resources that have actually been mobilized, and, most importantly, still need to be mobilized for climate projects. The good news is that, according to the IPCC AR6, “There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps.” The bad news is that there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action.
The report adds that “Barriers include institutional, regulatory and market access barriers bridge the investment gap required for climate action”. So I think securing additional funds for mitigation and adaptation is of course important, but perhaps the primary challenge is to redirect the money pipeline in order to align global capital towards climate.
As imperfect as climate multilateralism is, we’re worse off without it. Either way, in the lead-up to COP30, in my home country of Brazil and where a new set of NDCs is due, we’ll need to ramp up not only ambition, but, crucially, implementation.
PG: Carbon markets – a breakthrough?
AL: COP29 broke a decade-long stalemate and delivered on both Article 6.2 (country-to-country trading) where high-level decisions with regard to authorizations, registries, and integrity/a process to identify and correct inconsistencies were reached; and Article 6.4 (Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism), with the establishment of a mandate to Subsidiary Bodies to ramp up implementation, mandatory human rights checks, and alignment with the “best available science”. Carbon market discussions are highly technical and complex, and therefore slow, but with the consensus reached at COP29 markets can now finally become operational.
PG: Any progress on Energy transition?
AL: COP28 agreed on much-celebrated “transitioning away from fossil fuels” language, but at COP29 there was no decision on how to implement this transition, and no mention of fossil fuels in the outcome documents.
PG: Any progress on Global Stocktake (GST)?
AL: There was no agreement on how last year’s global stocktake/UAE Dialogue should move forward. Developed and developing countries demanded stronger commitments, but Saudi Arabia opposed the inclusion of specific fossil fuel language. As a consequence, the UAE dialogue was postponed until next year.
PG: Thoughts on geopolitics/governance?
AL: Negotiations were overshadowed by the likelihood of the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement/the Convention, criticism of the Azerbaijani COP presidency, Argentina recalling its delegates, and accounts of Saudi Arabia changing a text under negotiation. There were calls, including by former UNSG Ban Ki-moon, for reform of the COP process.
COP29 delivered a mixed bag of incremental progress and challenges. 2024 is likely to be the hottest year on record, and, according to the ICC, extreme climate events have cost over US$2 trillion in the last decade, a context that make COP29 results look paltry.
PG: Was this COP a flop show?
AL: I won’t join the “Flop29”, chorus: by delivering deals on key agenda items, COP29 is still a step forward, and has the merit of reaffirming the role of climate cooperation in a world fraught with geopolitical and economic tension. By avoiding a deadlock, COP29 prevented a COP29-bis led by Azerbaijan, the no-deal outcome of CBD COP16, and Rule 16 to kick in and postpone the NCQG decision to next year. As imperfect as climate multilateralism is, we’re worse off without it. Either way, in the lead-up to COP30, in my home country of Brazil and where a new set of NDCs is due, we’ll need to ramp up not only ambition, but, crucially, implementation.
PG: Many thanks Alessandra for this perspective. Brazil next! The world would be watching – after all the challenges petrostates as hosts tend to throw up. So hopefully the much desired great leap forward then.
The Diversity Blog 